Outlook Improves Significantly

In the September survey (7–16 September 2020), the CEP indicator rose by 18.3 points to a new level of 44.4 points. This is by far the highest value of the indicator since the survey began in mid-2013. The CEP indicator, based on the China Economic Panel (CEP) in cooperation with Fudan University, Shanghai, reflects the economic expectations of international financial market experts for China on a 12-month basis. The assessment of the current economic situation has also improved very strongly, with the corresponding indicator rocketing by 31.1 points to a new reading of 1.9 points, thus signalling a ‘normal’ economic situation. The point forecasts for real gross domestic product (GDP) have also gone up considerably. For the current year, the surveyed experts now expect GDP growth of 2.7 per cent (compared to 2.1 per cent in the previous month), and the forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards from 4.3 per cent to 5.7 per cent.  China could reach pre-COVID-19 growth levels

“According to the forecasts, the Chinese economy would return to pre-COVID-19 growth rates next year,” says Dr.  Michael Schröder, senior researcher in the “International Finance and Financial Management” Research Department at ZEW Mannheim. Expectations have risen sharply for all components of GDP, including exports, consumption and private investment. The experts are also optimistic regarding the individual sectors as well as the most important economic regions, which means that they are expecting to see a lasting economic recovery. Nevertheless, the indicator values for domestic and foreign debt remain very high. “The Chinese government has indeed managed to revive China’s economy through active economic policy measures. However, the improved economy has come at the price of significantly higher debt,” says Michael Schröder.

Über ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim

ZEW in Mannheim conducts research in the field of applied and policy-oriented economics and provides access to important data sets for national and international researchers. The institute provides advice to policymakers, private companies and government institutions at both the national and EU level on how to tackle current economic policy challenges. The central concern of ZEW’s research is to analyse and design markets and institutions that allow for the sustainable and efficient development of knowledge-based economies in Europe. By keeping the public informed on its latest research and providing further training to researchers and business leaders alike, ZEW acts as a guide through economic change. ZEW Mannheim was founded in 1991 and employs a staff of approximately 200, two thirds of whom are researchers. ZEW is a member of the Leibniz Association, a network of outstanding research institutes in Germany.

Research at ZEW

Labour Markets and Human Resources; Digital Economy; Economics of Innovation and Industrial Dynamics; International Finance and Financial Management; Social Policy and Redistribution; Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental Management; Corporate Taxation and Public Finance; Market Design.

Firmenkontakt und Herausgeber der Meldung:

ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim
L 7
68161 Mannheim
Telefon: +49 (621) 1235-01
Telefax: +49 (621) 1235-222

Dr. Michael Schröder
Senior Researcher in the ZEW Research Department "International Finance and Financial Management"
Telefon: +49 (621) 1235-368
E-Mail: info@zew.de
Sabine Elbert
Press Officer
Telefon: +49 (621) 1235-133
E-Mail: cvd@zew.de
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